Mortgage Rate Update

For the week of March 8th- March 15th

Conventional Loan Programs

Government Loan Programs

Rates this week have finally moved in the negative direction dropping in APR or remaining the same from last week, for all of the ten programs offered. Four of the ten programs stayed at the same rate they were at last week, although the majority of the programs, the other six tracked, dropped in rate for the first overall decrease in all of 2018. The overall change among all ten programs was a decrease of approximately 6.4 basis points. With the exception of the jumbo loan, which only saw a small decrease of 2.2 basis points, the other five programs that declined in APR all decreased by around 12 basis points.

Take a look at the Freddie Mac Survey of the 30-year fixed rate movement over the past year:

The Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate decreased for the first time this year to an APR of 4.44%. The change in APR this week was an decrease of 2 basis points from last week’s APR of 4.46%. The APR is now higher than it  was a year ago, at a level that is 14 basis points above where it was at this same time last year. In 2017 we were seeing a wide year on year gap averaging about a negative 50 basis point decrease to APR, however this year the change in rate is positive, as rates continue to rise and the year on year gap continues to wide.
Attributed to Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist.

“Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index report indicated inflation may be cooling down; headline consumer price inflation was 2.2 percent year-over-year in February. Following this news, the 10-year Treasury fell slightly. Mortgage rates followed Treasurys and ended a nine-week surge. The U.S. weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell 2 basis points to 4.44 percent in this week’s survey, its first decline this year.”

Here is the Freddie Mac Survey of the 30-year fixed historical average rate movement over the past 30 years:

Above is the 30 year fixed Freddie Mac conventional program’s APR historic average data for the past 30 years dating back to 1987. In the late 1980’s, when the graph begins its recording, rates were at a 30 year high with all APR’s above the 10.00% mark, which is more than double where rates have been at in most recent years. In the early 1990’s rates began dropping for a four year on year decline from years 1989 to 1992. For the most part, APR averages on a yearly basis have been steadily declining in the past 30 years since 1987, with some years being an exception to this trend, but when looked at from a distance it appears rates are moving downward on a yearly averaged basis. 2017 was an exception to this trend as rates increased by more than 30 basis points: from the 30 year low of 3.65% APR in 2016. Since 2010 it appears that rates have been fluctuating at only a minimal pace.


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Calculation Notes

  • Mortgage rates assume purchase of a single-family, detached, owner-occupied, residential property.
  • Mortgage rates assume borrower credit score of 760 and a Debt-to-Income ratio of 35%. Rates for conventional loan programs assume a loan-to-value of 60%.
  • Loan amount is $453,100 for all programs (appraised value of $760,000), except for the high balance ($615,250 loan and $1,030,000 value), and Jumbo ($750,000 loan and $1,500,000 value)
  • Mortgage rates and APR subject to change
  • 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, 30-year high balance, Manufactured, Jumbo
  • FHA, FHA 203k, Manufactured, USDA, VA